To all who receive this correspondence,

This is a final warning of grave consequence regarding the economic welfare of this nation. I write not in speculation, but in the certainty borne of years at the trade desk, the study of markets, and the undeniable convergence of forces now aligned against the common citizen.

I have completely exited the United States Stock Market. I will re-enter only upon witnessing a correction of 35 to 50 percent from peak valuations. To those holding large retirement accounts, it is hereby counselled that you build a strong and defensible cash position without delay.

The confluence of forces presently arrayed against prosperity is without modern parallel. The Strait of Hormuz, through which twenty percent of the worlds oil once flowed with assured regularity, has been rendered effectively closed to non-Chinese tankers. What the mainstream financial press dismisses as a price spike is in truth a physical supply vacuum of historic proportions. Only ten percent of normal crude flows are presently making transit.

Simultaneously, the equity markets remain priced at the second highest valuations in 150 years of American financial history, surpassing even the heights preceding the Great Depression. The Shiller CAPE Ratio, standing at 39 to 41, is not a warning. It is a verdict. The Buffett Indicator, exceeding 200 percent of GDP, echoes the same proclamation.

I urge you to fact-check this research and make your own informed decision. The information set forth herein is offered freely and in good faith, for the protection of families and the preservation of hard-earned wealth.

The five forces driving this warning are as follows. First, the 2026 Middle East war has already disrupted 8 to 10 million barrels per day of oil supply, representing 8 to 10 percent of global supply. This surpasses every prior oil shock in recorded history, including the 1973 Arab Embargo, the 1979 Iranian Revolution, and the 1990 Gulf Crisis combined. Every major historical oil shock of this magnitude triggered a recession with equity declines reaching 40 percent.

Second, gold is skyrocketing to all-time highs as investors flee to safe havens. The 2025 to 2026 move now completely overshadows every previous gold peak in modern history. This is not a cyclical rally. It is a flight to survival.

Third, the Buffett Indicator now stands above 200 percent of GDP. A healthy ratio sits at 1 to 1, where market cap equals GDP. We currently have a 69 trillion dollar market cap against a 30 trillion dollar GDP. A 50 to 55 percent market correction would be required simply to return to fair value.

Fourth, the Shiller CAPE ratio sits at 39 to 41 as of December 2025. A safe P/E historically falls between 15 and 20, with anything above 25 to 30 considered dangerously overvalued. We are presently at the second highest market peak in 150 years of American financial history, higher than the levels preceding the Great Depression and the 2008 housing crash.

Fifth, the Dow to Gold ratio is now crossing the 15 threshold for only the fourth time in recorded history. A crashing Dow to Gold ratio has historically preceded every major crisis including the 1929 Great Depression, the 1973 recession, and the 2008 global financial crisis. Each of these five indicators points to the same conclusion.