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SPYQQQDIAVIXGOLDSILVERWTI CRUDEBRENT CRUDEBITCOIN10Y TREASURY2Y TREASURYDXY USD INDEXEUR/USDUSD/JPYMOVE INDEXTLT BONDSHYG HIGH YIELDCOPPERNATURAL GASFED FUNDS RATEVIX TERM STRUCTURERUSSELL 2000S&P 500 SECTORSBALTIC DRY INDEXSKEW INDEXSPYQQQDIAVIXGOLDSILVERWTI CRUDEBRENT CRUDEBITCOIN10Y TREASURY2Y TREASURYDXY USD INDEXEUR/USDUSD/JPYMOVE INDEXTLT BONDSHYG HIGH YIELDCOPPERNATURAL GASFED FUNDS RATEVIX TERM STRUCTURERUSSELL 2000S&P 500 SECTORSBALTIC DRY INDEXSKEW INDEX

Hormuz Blockade

⚠ BREAKING

STRAIT OF HORMUZ — GEOPOLITICAL HEART ATTACK

THE STRAIT IS CLOSED.
94% TRADE COLLAPSE.
IS YOUR PORTFOLIO LEVERAGED FOR THE BLOCKADE?

While the world waits for it to "blow over," 20 million barrels of oil are trapped. We analyze the physical supply chain fracture that the mainstream media is ignoring.

HORMUZ FLOW

▼ 94%

ASSET

OIL ↗

RISK LEVEL

EXTREME

DOWNLOAD THE HORMUZ SURVIVAL GUIDE ↓

🔴 TECHNICAL ALERT

NVDA BREAKDOWN — BULL TRAP CONFIRMED

GENERALS IN RETREAT:
NVDA SNAPS $177 SUPPORT.
THE BULL TRAP HAS SHUT.

AI hope cannot save a war economy. When the market leaders break, the "Waterfall Sell-off" begins.

SIGNAL

BREAKDOWN

SIGNAL

WATERFALL

NEXT LEVEL

WATCH

SEE THE NVDA DOWNSIDE TARGETS ↓

👻 HISTORICAL WARNING

THE 1931 PARALLEL — GREAT DEPRESSION ROADMAP

THE 1931 GHOST
HAS RETURNED.
BACK-TO-BACK FRIDAY THE 13THS
& THE BLOOD MOON.

History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes. We are entering the exact "Demoralization Phase" that defined the Great Depression.

PHASE

DEMORALIZATION

PARALLEL

1931

ACCESS THE 1931 CRASH TIMELINE ↓

Succession Siege

🚨 GEOPOLITICAL SHIFT

IRAN SUCCESSION — MOJTABA KHAMENEI

A NEW SUPREME LEADER.
MOJTABA KHAMENEI'S
ECONOMIC SIEGE BEGINS.

Iran has pivoted to inflicting asymmetric global pain. Trade the shift from tactical warfare to systemic economic strangulation.

REGIME

SUCCESSION

OIL IMPACT

CRITICAL

READ THE SUCCESSION IMPACT ANALYSIS ↓

🦢 BLACK SWAN

CONVERGENCE EVENT — SYSTEMIC COLLAPSE SIGNAL

BLACK SWAN CONVERGENCE:
FUTURES GAPPED DOWN. ENERGY SUPPLY IN CRISIS.
TRADE THE SYSTEMIC COLLAPSE.

Most traders freeze during a Black Swan. The Leveraged Trader thrives.

OIL

SPIKING ▲

POSITIONING

DEFENSIVE

JOIN THE BLACK SWAN ALPHA ROOM ↓

‹

›

1 / 5

MARKETS LIVE

SPY ↗

QQQ ↗

VIX ↗

GOLD ↗

10Y ↗

WTI ↗

ET --:--:--

PORTFOLIO ALLOCATION SCENARIOS

Each scenario represents a distinct macro environment. The ACTIVE scenario is what the Stifel Trade Desk is currently positioned in. Not financial advice.

🚨 CURRENTLY ACTIVE — WAR ECONOMY MODE

CURRENT MACRO MOVES — MAR 2026

War Economy Defense — Oil Shock + Iran Conflict

Geopolitical war, oil supply shock, Hormuz closed, stagflation risk, equity sell-off.

💵 Cash / T-Bills

60%

🛢️ Energy (XLE)

15%

🥇 Gold (GLD)

10%

📊 Short Bonds

10%

📉 Puts (SPY/QQQ)

5%

📈 US Equities

0%

₿ Bitcoin

0%

PRE-RECESSION MOVES

Defensive Rotation — Hard Assets + Bonds

Slowing growth, inverted yield curve, rising unemployment, Fed pivot approaching.

💵 Cash / T-Bills

35%

📊 Long Bonds

25%

🥇 Gold (GLD)

20%

🛡️ Defensives

10%

🥈 Silver

5%

📉 Puts

5%

📈 US Equities

0%

STAGFLATION MOVES

Inflation + Stagnant Growth

High CPI + rising unemployment, Fed paralyzed, oil shock, negative real rates.

🥇 Gold (GLD)

30%

🛢️ Energy

20%

💵 Cash

20%

🥈 Silver

10%

🌾 Commodities

10%

📊 TIPS / Bonds

10%

SOFT LANDING / RECOVERY

Fed Cuts + Growth Re-Accelerates

Fed pivot confirmed, inflation cooling, earnings recovering, credit spreads tightening.

🇺🇸 US ETFs

25%

💵 Cash

20%

📊 Long Bonds

20%

🌍 Intl ETFs

15%

🥇 Gold

10%

₿ Bitcoin

5%

📞 Calls

5%

BULL RUN — FULL RISK-ON

Offense Mode — Equities + Growth + Leverage

Strong GDP, low unemployment, earnings beats, Fed neutral/cutting, VIX below 16.

🇺🇸 US ETFs

40%

📈 Stocks

20%

🌍 Intl ETFs

15%

₿ Bitcoin

10%

💵 Cash

5%

🥇 Gold

5%

📞 Calls

5%

📊 Bonds

0%

🦢 BLACK SWAN / CRASH MODE

Max Defense + Short — Full Collapse Positioning

VIX 40+, credit seizure, bank stress, liquidity crisis, Lehman-style event.

💵 Cash / T-Bills

50%

🥇 Gold (GLD)

20%

📉 Puts

15%

🛢️ Energy Short

10%

🥈 Silver

5%

📈 US Equities

0%

LIVE MARKET UPDATES

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MACRO ECONOMICS LIVE OPS BOARD

CLICK ANY INDICATOR TO OPEN LIVE CHART • ALL DATA LINKS TO EXTERNAL REAL-TIME SOURCES

🇺🇸 U.S. EQUITIES & MAJOR INDICES

SPY — S&P 500 ETF

QQQ — Nasdaq ETF

DIA — Dow Jones ETF

VIX — Volatility Index

Russell 2000 (IWM)

Nasdaq vs S&P 500 Ratio

⚡ VOLATILITY & OPTIONS MARKET

VIX Live (CBOE)

VIX Futures Curve

MOVE Index (Bond Vol)

Market Theta Converted

📊 TREASURIES & YIELD CURVES

2s10s Yield Curve (FRED)

10-Year Treasury Yield

30-Year Treasury Yield

3-Month T-Bill Yield

TLT — Long Bond ETF

🛢️ OIL, ENERGY & JET FUEL

WTI Crude Oil (CL)

Brent Crude Oil

Jet Fuel Price Index

Natural Gas Futures

USO — Oil ETF

🥇 GOLD, SILVER & PRECIOUS METALS

Gold Futures (GC)

Silver Futures (SI)

GLD — Gold ETF

💱 CURRENCIES & FOREX

USD Index (DXY)

Emerging Market (EEM)

🌍 INTERNATIONAL MARKETS

EWY — Korea ETF

VEA — Developed Markets

EWJ — Japan ETF

FXI — China Large Cap

EWG — Germany ETF

📉 CREDIT MARKETS & BOND SPREADS

High Yield Spread (FRED)

Corp Bond Spread (IG)

HYG — High Yield ETF

LQD — Investment Grade

🔄 SECTOR PERFORMANCE & ROTATION

S&P 500 Heatmap (Finviz)

XLF — Financials

XLK — Technology

XLV — Healthcare

XLU — Utilities

🌾 BROAD COMMODITIES

Commodity Index (DJP)

Baltic Dry Index

Corn Futures ETF

Wheat Futures ETF

📈 MACRO ECONOMIC INDICATORS

Unemployment Rate (FRED)

CPI / Inflation (FRED)

Fed Funds Expectations

Recession Probability

🎯 STUDY GREAT MARTS & SPECIAL

Finviz Futures Overview

S&P 500 Historical Returns

US Macro Dashboard

Bitcoin Live Price